As of late March 2026, the Iran war has upended the global LNG outlook, with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz causing crude and oil product flows to plunge from 21 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 2 mb/d. Gulf countries have cut total oil production by more than 11 mb/d. [1] Natural gas prices in Asian markets have risen sharply since the start of the war, reflecting the region’s greater exposure to supply disruptions via the strait. [2] An estimated 12%-16% of global ethylene capacity and 20% of methanol capacity have been impacted by the war in Iran, according to S&P Global Energy. This has caused producers and governments to bolster the resilience of their supply chains, due to these restricted flows of ethylene, methanol, and other petrochemical feedstocks damaging global derivatives pricing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) asserts that the war, which began in late February, has caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
[1] https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets?