In its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment released on December 13, 2023, the North American Reliability Corp. (NERC) said rising peak demand and the planned retirement of 83 GW of fossil fuel and nuclear generation over the next ten years creates a blackout risk for most of the U.S.[1] According to the report, while most regions should have sufficient electricity supply in normal weather, the Northeast and the Western half of the U.S. are at risk of blackouts in extreme conditions. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the grid operator for much of the Midwest and central South regions, faces a 4.7 GW shortfall starting in 2028 if generator retirements progress as expected, despite the planned addition of more than 12 GW. NERC noted that there are 50 GW of generation with signed generation interconnection agreements that are not online and another 200+ GW of new resources in the interconnection queue that are still being evaluated. NERC also identified a potential shortfall in planned reserves in Southeastern Electric Reliability Council-Central (SERC-Central) in the 2025-2027 period as demand increases faster than the transitioning resource mix grows.

To address the growing risk, the report recommended building new gas capacity, expanding the transmission network, and developing grid planning processes to better account for variable resources and the interconnected nature of the power and gas sectors.

[1] https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2023.pdf