[USA] EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Published as of April 15, 2025, the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) explores potential long-term energy trends in the US, including projections of energy consumption and supply. [1] The report can help stakeholders examine the ways in which the US energy system could change through 2050. [2] According to AEO2025, total energy consumption in the US will decline through 2040 before increasing again, due to efficiency and the report’s methodology. The report also indicates significant growth in renewable electricity production through 2050, alongside a decline in coal generation. It forecasts growth from 2.57 quads of wind and solar in 2024 to 13.92 quads in 2050. Coal production will decline from 10.26 quads in 2024 to 2.78 quads in 2050. Meanwhile, natural gas production is expected to rise modestly to 43.5 quads in 2050 up from 40 quads in 2024. In a statement, Department of Energy spokesperson Andrea Woods stated that the report reflects the “disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden Administration.”

[1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/2025/AEO2025-narrative.pdf

[2] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-statement-eia-annual-energy-outlook

[USA] FERC approves the PJM capacity auction price cap and floor

As of April 21, 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the PJM Interconnection’s proposal to set a price cap and price floor for its next two capacity auctions. [1] This is despite facing opposition from the grid operator’s market monitor LS Power and others. In a 4-0 decision, FERC stated that current market conditions in PJM support a time-limited collar on the capacity market price for two delivery years. [2] The proposal of a $325/MW-day price cap and $175/MW-day floor for its 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery year base capacity auctions came out of settlement discussions with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. [3] Shapiro filed a complaint at FERC in December seeking to lower the auction’s price cap. Without the collar, the price cap for the next capacity auction in July would have been $500/MW-day and the floor would have been zero dollars. FERC said the proposal represents a balanced approach that addresses past issues with delays by improving short-term cost certainty for electricity consumers and revenue certainty for capacity resource owners. In the meantime, PJM plans to revise key inputs into its capacity price settling process eventually and implement interconnection queue process reforms according to FERC.

[1] https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2025-press-releases/gov-shapiro-agreement-pjm-prevent-price-hikes-save-consumers-ove.html

[2] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/committees-groups/committees/mic/2025/20250311-special/item-02-pjm-quadrennial-review-revised-draft-recommendations.pdf

[3] https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20250421-3069&optimized=false

[USA] Trump administration orders Empire Wind offshore wind project construction to cease

As of April 16, 2025, the US Department of the Interior has directed the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to order the 810 megawatt (MW) Empire Wind 1 project to cease all construction pending further review, announced Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. [1] Burgum alleged that the project was rushed through by the previous administration without sufficient analysis, in a letter to BOEM. [2] The letter states that there was insufficient consultation among relevant agencies as relates to the potential effects from the project, and that construction will remain halted until the deficiencies are addressed. [3] Equinor, the project developer, stated that all offshore construction for the project would be safely halted, but they would engage with relevant authorities to clarify the matter and consider legal remedies. [4] According to a statement by New York Governor Kathy Hochul, D, the New York project is a fully federally permitted one which had already “put shovels in the ground” prior to the President’s executive orders. BOEM had approved Empire Wind 1’s construction and operations plan in February – a final step in the process of authorizing an offshore wind project. The only steps remaining are the lessee’s submission of a facility design report and fabrication and installation report, according to the agency.

[1] https://chrissmith.house.gov/uploadedfiles/trump_admin_dept_of_interior_empire_wind_memo_signed_by_secretary_burgum_april_16_2025.pdf

[2] https://www.empirewind.com/2025/04/17/equinor-suspends-offshore-construction-activities-for-the-empire-wind-project/

[3] https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/statement-governor-kathy-hochul-74

[4] https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/renewable-energy/state-activities/Rainbow_Graphic_Wind_Authorization_Process.pdf

[USA] Trump administration ordered by court to reinstate IRA funding

On April 15, 2025, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to take immediate action to reinstate the funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) that had already been awarded, after the president had frozen it on his first day in office. [1] Judge Mary McElroy of the US District court for Rhode Island ordered the Environmental Protection Agency and the Departments of Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Interior and Agriculture to release the awards that were previously withheld, after the ruling. [2] The ruling applies to all awardees across the nation and will remain in effect until McElroy rules on the merits of the lawsuit. The ruling impedes President Trump’s plans to block the Biden administration’s climate funding law, which provides billions of dollars and tax credits for domestic manufacturers. The IIJA provides billions of dollars in clean energy funding. After the funding freeze, six nonprofits sued the agencies in March in an attempt to access their funding, after the other court orders had failed. McElroy’s grant of a preliminary injunction requires agencies to turn the funding back on while the case is pending.

[1] https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.rid.59116/gov.uscourts.rid.59116.45.0.pdf

[2] https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.rid.59116/gov.uscourts.rid.59116.1.0.pdf

[USA] FERC and proposed ROE for Valley Link transmission project

As of April 4, 2025, filings submitted by stakeholders to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) suggest that the agency should reduce the proposed return on equity (ROE) and deny various incentives for a $3 billion transmission project planned by Transource Energy, Dominion Energy, and FirstEnergy. [1] The Valley Link transmission, which includes two 765-kV backbone transmission lines, is part of the PJM Interconnection’s latest Regional Transmission Expansion Plan, which was approved by their board in February. [2] The project is set to be built by Valley Link Transmission, a joint venture between Transource, which is owned by American Electric Power and Evergy, FirstEnergy, and Dominion. [3] In mid-March, Valley Link asked FERC to approve formula rates and transmission incentives for the project, which the company said will ensure reliability and collaboration at a time when cost-effective regional transmission development is essential. According to the Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, the incentive package results in an impermissible transfer of risk onto residential ratepayers. According to the OPC, the proposed base ROE of 10.9% is too high, which is why they urged FERC to reject Valley Link’s application.

[1] https://news.dominionenergy.com/press-releases/press-releases/2025/PJM-selects-regional-transmission-projects-to-be-jointly-developed-by-Dominion-Energy-American-Electric-Power-FirstEnergy/default.aspx

[2] https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20250404-5218&optimized=false

[3] https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20250314-5309&optimized=false

[USA] Regulatory relief for certain stationary sources to promote American energy

As of April 8, 2025, the White House issued an executive order to amend a prior EPA rule titled National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Coal- and Oil-Fired Electric Utility Steam Generating Units Review of the Residual Risk and Technology Review, 89 FR 38508, which reformed the existing Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. [1] The order states that coal-fired generation is necessary as an affordable means to promote energy security and the prior EPA rule represents an “unattainable” emissions control standard that jeopardizes the use of coal. The order goes on to discuss how the rule places severe burdens on coal-fired power plants by requiring compliance with standards for emissions-control technologies that do not yet exist in a “commercially viable form.” The order suggests that the current compliance timeline of the rule raises the risk of the shutdown of many coal-fired power plants, which threatens economic and energy security. It also states that certain stationary sources subject to the rule are exempt from compliance for 2 years beyond the compliance date.

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/rregulatory-relief-for-certain-stationary-sources-to-promote-american-energy/

[USA] PJM fast-track interconnection process draws 26.6 GW in proposals

As of March 21, 2025, the PJM Interconnection’s Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI), a fast-track interconnection process, attracted 94 applications totaling 26.6 GW. [1] The projects include new and uprated nuclear and natural gas-fired power plants, as well as new battery storage. [2] Half of the proposals are new projects and the other half increase capacity at existing power plants. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved PJM’s one-time RRI in mid-February on a 3-1 vote. PJM will consider adding up to 50 shovel-ready projects that meet certain reliability and commercial operation date criteria to the recently-started interconnection Transition Cycle 2. The RRI proposal is in response to PJM’s concerns that its power supply margins are declining in the face of power plant retirements and growing demand. PJM estimates that its initiative could bring about 10 GW online 18 months earlier than if the projects followed the normal interconnection process.

[1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/reliability-resource-initiative-draws-94-applications/

[2] https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/filelist?accession_number=20250211-3120&optimized=false

[USA] DOE identifies 16 federal sites across the country for data center and AI infrastructure development

As of April 3, 2025, the US Department of Energy (DOE) announced plans to continue promoting artificial intelligence (AI) while lowering energy costs by co-locating data centers and new energy infrastructure on DOE lands. [1] DOE has released a Request for Information (RFI) to inform the potential use of DOE land for AI infrastructure development to support the growing demand for data centers. The DOE has identified 16 possible sites for rapid data center construction, including those with in-place energy infrastructure that can facilitate fast-track permitting for new energy generation, such as nuclear. The Department is seeking input from data center developers, energy developers, and the broader public to advance the partnership further. This information will be used to inform development, encourage private-public partnerships, and enable the construction of AI infrastructure at select DOE sites with a target of commencing operation by the end of 2027.

[1] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-identifies-16-federal-sites-across-country-data-center-and-ai-infrastructure

[USA] US biodiesel use increases outside of the transportation sector

As of March 26, 2025, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that a small but increasing amount of biodiesel in the US is consumed in the residential, commercial, and electric power sectors. [1] Previously, all US biodiesel consumption was allocated to the transportation sector, where a vast majority is consumed. Biodiesel is a renewable fuel produced using fats, oils, or greases usually blended with petroleum diesel and consumed by trucks. In 2023, the transportation sector accounted for about 95% of the 46 million barrels of biodiesel consumed in the United States. Biodiesel can also be blended with heating oil to heat homes and businesses. Residential and commercial sectors combined accounted for nearly 5% of US total biodiesel consumption in 2023, up from about 1% a decade before. The introduction of biofuel blending mandates for heating oil in some northeastern states is contributing to this growth.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64824

[USA] Texas Senate passes bill to establish dispatchable power credits trading program

As of March 20, 2025, the Texas Senate passed a bill to create a new dispatchable power credits trading program that would require utilities, generation companies, and electric cooperatives in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory to offset new renewables and battery capacity with an equal amount of new dispatchable capacity beginning as early as next year. [1] The bill defines dispatchable generation to exclude batteries and exempts companies that only operate battery storage systems. S.B.388 updates a 25-year-old section of the Texas Utilities Code to reflect the intent of the legislature that 50 percent of the megawatts of generating capacity installed in ERCOT power region after January 1, 2026, be sourced from dispatchable generation other than battery energy storage. It requires the Texas Public Utilities Commission to establish a program through which covered utilities and power generation companies would buy dispatchable power credits to cover any deficit in dispatchable generation capacity under the companies’ ownership or control. The bill says that the PUC must activate the credit trading program if it determines that dispatchable generation may provide less than 55 percent of all new generating capacity installed in the ERCOT power region after January 1, 2026.

[1] https://legiscan.com/TX/text/SB388/2025

[USA] MISO proposes framework to accelerate generation interconnection

As of March 17, 2025, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) asked federal regulators to approve an Expedited Resource Addition Study process (ERAS) to provide a framework for the accelerated study of generation projects that can address urgent resource adequacy and reliability needs in the near term. [1] MISO asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to approve the ERAS proposal to be effective by May 17. MISO is on pace for near-term capacity shortfalls, if resource retirements continue as planned. MISO told FERC that recent surveys and forecasts demonstrate the urgency with which MISO needs to address significant resource adequacy needs in its footprint that are compounded by the addition of unexpected large spot loads. In its proposal, MISO said that the ERAS proposal is their answer to addressing these resource adequacy and reliability needs in the near term. MISO said it wants to sunset ERAS by the end of 2028, reflecting its intention for these projects to be completed as soon as possible and providing sufficient time to complete other queue process improvements.

[1] https://cdn.misoenergy.org/2025-03-17_Docket%20No.%20ER25-1674-000685943.pdf

[USA] EPA withdraws air quality permit for 1.5-GW Atlantic Shores offshore wind project

As of March 14, 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) remanded the Atlantic Shores wind energy project’s Clean Air Act permit. [1] The Environmental Appeals Board said EPA’s Region 2 office, which covers New Jersey, requested the voluntary remand so that the region may reevaluate the project and its environmental impacts. [2] This is in light of President Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order, which mandated a pause on offshore wind leasing and a review of existing leases. The filing said that Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind filed a March 7 response objecting to the remand, asserting that the Region 2 didn’t provide good cause for it, but the board said it has broad discretion over the voluntary remand. Region 2’s review of the permit will involve conferring with other executive branch agencies regarding further evaluation of various impacts that may result from the Project, including environmental concerns.

[1] https://yosemite.epa.gov/oa/eab_web_docket.nsf/9C7B7CF33923032185258C4D0058F4A7/$File/Atlantic%20Shores%20Order%20Granting%20Motion%20for%20Voluntary%20Remand,%20FINAL.pdf

[2] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/temporary-withdrawal-of-all-areas-on-the-outer-continental-shelf-from-offshore-wind-leasing-and-review-of-the-federal-governments-leasing-and-permitting-practices-for-wind-projects/

[USA] DOE approves LNG export permit extension for Golden Pass

As of March 5, 2025, the US Department of Energy (DOE) approved a liquefied natural gas export permit extension for Golden Pass LNG. [1] The project is owned by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil and is under construction in Sabine Pass, Texas. This is the third LNG project authorization by the DOE since President Trump took office, reversing the Biden administration “pause” on export approvals. Golden Pass is set to begin exporting as early as later this year and will become the ninth large-scale export terminal operating in the United States. Once completed, Golden Pass will be able to export almost 2.57 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas as LNG. The DOE’s decision follows two February actions: the export approval for Commonwealth LNG and the order on rehearing that removed barriers to using LNG as “bunkering fuel” used by the ships transporting it.

[1] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-issues-export-approval-golden-pass-lng-accelerating-president-trumps-pledge-restore

[USA] Ontario applies 25 per cent surcharge on electricity exports to the US

As of March 10, 2025, the Ontario government has applied a 25 per cent surcharge on all electricity exports to the United States as part of their initial retaliatory measures against US tariffs on Canada. [1] The surcharge will affect 1.5 million homes in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, costing up to $400,000 every day that it remains in place. Any generator selling electricity to the US is required to add a 25 per cent surcharge valued at $10 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to the cost of power. This surcharge is in addition to the initial round of $30 billion in retaliatory tariffs. Ontario currently exports electricity generated across the province directly to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. Between 2021 and 2023, Ontario exported 14.6, 14.2, and 12.0 terawatt hours of electricity to the United States. Ontario has 26 transmission connections with neighboring jurisdictions: 11 with Quebec, three with Manitoba, one with Minnesota, four with Michigan, and seven with New York.

[1] https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1005690/ontario-applies-25-per-cent-surcharge-on-electricity-exports-to-united-states

[USA] PJM board approves $6.7B transmission expansion plan

As of February 26, 2025, the PJM Interconnection board approved $5.9 billion in new transmission projects to bolster reliability across the grid operator’s footprint. [1] That, along with the changes to the scope and cost of existing projects, mean PJM’s latest Regional Transmission Expansion Plan is set to cost $6.7 billion, according to the grid operator. [2] The plan contains a modified version of a proposal to build a 765-kV, multistate transmission backbone offered by American Electric Power, Dominion Energy Virginia, and FirstEnergy. [3] This $4.6 billion set of projects aims to bolster west-east regional power transfers according to PJM staff analysis of its recommended plan. The plan calls for 260 miles of 765-kV transmission line between Putnam County, West Virginia, and Frederick County, Maryland. It also calls for a 155-mile line between Campbell and Fauquier counties in Virginia, according to AEP. The board also approved a revised cost estimate - $1.5 billion, up from $739 million – for transmission additions, PJM needs to allow Talen Energy to retire its coal-fired Brandon Shores power plant in Maryland. Exelon subsidiaries Baltimore Gas and Electric, PECO Energy, and Potomac Edison will be the projects’ primary builders.

[1] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/committees-groups/committees/teac/2025/20250204/20250204-pjm-board-whitepaper-february-2025.pdf

[2] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/committees-groups/committees/teac/2025/20250304/20250304-2024-rtep-window-1-reliability-analysis-report.pdf

[3] https://www.aep.com/news/stories/view/10048/

[USA] Kentucky Senate passes Bill 179 to Establish Nuclear Energy Grant Program

As of February 20, 2025, a bill that will create a grant program to advance nuclear energy developments in Kentucky passed out of the Kentucky Senate’s Natural Resources and Energy committee. [1] The bill, entitled Senate Bill 179, aims to build on other efforts to create opportunities for Kentucky to pursue investments in nuclear energy, setting aside $10 million from existing appropriations to the University of Kentucky and the Kentucky Nuclear Energy Development Authority (KNEDA) for grant funding. The program that would be created by this bill would be administered by KNEDA, the nonregulatory state agency that was created during the 2024 legislative session. A subcommittee of the agency’s members would be responsible for administering awards for the grant program, which would be capped at $2 million. The agency will also be charged with promoting the program, accepting applications, and overseeing the distribution of funds.

[1] https://apps.legislature.ky.gov/record/25rs/sb179.html

[USA] White House claims authority over FERC, other independent agencies

As of February 18, 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order stating that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and other independent agencies, such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission, must submit proposed and final significant regulatory actions for review by the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. [1] According to the executive order, independent regulatory agencies currently exercise substantial executive authority without adequate accountability to the president, including issuing regulations without review by the White House. [2] The order states that FERC Chairman Mark Christie and other heads of independent agencies will consult with and coordinate agency policies and priorities with the directors of OMB, the White House Domestic Policy Council, and the White House National Economic Council. The OMB’s director will set performance standards and management objectives for independent agency heads and report to the president on their performance and “efficiency” in meeting them. The order also states that Christie and other independent agency chairmen will submit agency strategy plans to the OMB director for clearance prior to finalization. FERC has 15 planned regulations in the pre-rule and proposed rule stages, including proposals dealing with transmission incentives and dynamic line ratings, according to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/ensuring-accountability-for-all-agencies/

[2] https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaMain?operation=OPERATION_GET_AGENCY_RULE_LIST&currentPub=true&agencyCode=&showStage=active&agencyCd=1902&csrf_token=10818724E978399CA4EA62DAFFDC21E3716F92B711E068740471F4F9E5BE6FB2BDEF52B5633E3826F69F108844C74148AFB8

[USA] DOE to focus on expanding baseload generation: Secretary Wright

As of February 5, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright said in an order outlining the department’s priorities, that the DOE will focus on growing baseload and dispatchable generation to meet growing electricity demand. [1] According to Wright, the DOE will focus on adding energy resources rather than taking them away. Wright emphasized that the DOE will exercise all lawful authorities to strengthen the US power grid, including the transmission system, especially considering current and anticipated load growth on electric utilities. He also stated that the department would support emerging nuclear power as well as its rapid deployment. In its R&D programs, the DOE will focus on fossil fuels, advanced nuclear, geothermal, and hydropower, technologies that Wright believes are affordable, reliable, and secure. Wright also suggested that the department would prioritize nuclear fusion, high-performance computing, quantum computing, and AI, in order to maintain global competitiveness.

[1] https://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-wright-acts-unleash-golden-era-american-energy-dominance

[USA] Trump announces US-Japan energy deal for Alaska LNG exports

As of February 10, 2025, President Donald Trump hosted Prime Minister Ishiba at the White House for their first US-Japan summit. [1] During the joint press conference, President Trump announced a new energy partnership with Japan that involves $44 billion worth of exports from the Alaska LNG project. [2] Trump’s executive order “Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential,” prioritizes the development of Alaska’s LNG potential, including the permitting of all necessary pipeline and export infrastructure related to the Alaska LNG Project. [3] The project has also already received federal approvals, including from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and other departments. It is expected to deliver from the North Slope gas fields on average about 3.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day, much of it reserved for international markets.

[1] https://jp.usembassy.gov/president-trump-hosts-prime-minister-ishiba-in-washington/ [2] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-alaskas-extraordinary-resource-potential/ [3] https://alaska-lng.com/project-overview/

[USA] CenterPoint proposes $5.75B system resiliency plan

As of February 4, 2025, CenterPoint Energy filed a $5.75 billion system resiliency plan with the Public Utility Commission of Texas that calls for installing automation devices on power lines serving large numbers of customers, undergrounding more than 50% of its electric system, strengthening 130,000 power poles, raising substations above flood plains, and expanding vegetation management. [1] CenterPoint stated that the proposal is the largest single grid resiliency investment in the company’s history. CenterPoint said the plan builds on its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative that launched after Hurricane Beryl left almost 2.3 million customers in Houston without power in August 2024. In its application, the company noted that it serves a quarter of the load on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system, and its critical customers include the Port of Houston, Texas Medical Center, two airports, and several chemical refineries. CenterPoint’s resiliency plan calls for rebuilding or upgrading more than 2,200 transmission structures, utilizing a three-year vegetation management cycle for transmission and distribution lines, and modernizing 34,500 spans of underground cables. The utility will also improve its existing technology systems and move customer-facing websites from on-premise to cloud-based hosting for better communications.

[1] https://interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/filings/?ControlNumber=57579