As of December 9, 2025, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its 2026 electricity generation growth forecast by 1.3% from last month due to “how much large load electricity demand has come online so far this year,” especially in Texas, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report. EIA projects generation to grow by 2.4% this year and 1.7% next year, with US generation reaching 4,327 billion kWh in 2026, down from the 4,382 billion kWh estimate from November. [1] Last month, the EIA expected US electricity generation to grow by 3% in 2026. Much of the projected growth originates from grids managed by the PJM Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), with total downward revision being driven by changes in ERCOT’s projected demand growth. The EIA revised its forecast of ERCOT growth rates since November, shrinking its projections from 6% to 5% in 2025 and from 15.7% to 9.6% in 2026.
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