As of October 7, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. household energy spending this winter to vary significantly by heating fuel, with electricity and heating-oil costs increasing while natural gas and propane costs decline. [1] EIA forecasts that households using electricity for heating, which account for more than 40% of U.S. homes, will spend about 4% more on average this winter, while the roughly 3% of households that use heating oil could see spending rise 21%. The increase in heating-oil costs is concentrated in the Northeast, where heating oil remains more widely used. EIA attributes the higher prices to tighter global distillate markets following lower refinery production, while U.S. distillate exports increased 20% during the first seven months of 2026. As a result, U.S. distillate inventories are projected to remain about 11% below the five-year average during the fourth quarter. For electric utilities and other energy stakeholders, the outlook highlights continued differences in winter energy costs across regions and fuels, particularly as electricity demand for heating remains sensitive to power prices and weather conditions.
