[USA] Electricity generation from solar to exceed coal in ERCOT in 2026

As of May 13, 2026, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted in their Short-Term Energy Outlook that annual electric power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass that from coal for the first time in 2026 within the grid that spans most of Texas. [1] Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026 in the electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) compared with 60 BkWh for coal. Solar capacity additions have steadily been contributing to meeting electricity demand growth in ERCOT. While natural gas is still the dominant source, solar’s share of the generation mix has increased from 4% to 12% between 2021 and 2025, with coal’s share decreasing from 19% to 13% during the same period. The EIA expects approximately 40% of total solar capacity additions in the US in 2026 to occur in Texas. This year, the largest solar photovoltaic project that will come online in 2026 will be in Texas. The solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) combination project Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS is 837 megawatts (MW).

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67685