As of September 14, 2026, a Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission-commissioned study found that PJM could fall below its resource adequacy target by 2030 as data center demand grows faster than new generation. [1] In the study’s reference scenario, PJM’s modeled loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) reaches 0.59 in 2030, nearly six times PJM’s 0.1 planning criterion; under a high-load, low-supply scenario, LOLE reaches 13.20, indicating more than 13 days of potential loss-of-load events per year. A scenario with no new data centers was the only one modeled to remain within PJM’s target. The study also projects Pennsylvania’s electricity exports declining from about 91 TWh in 2025 to 38 TWh by 2040 in the reference case, while the high-load, low-supply case turns the state into a net importer by 2040. PJM said demand is growing faster than generation and could compromise reliability over the next five years, while pointing to interconnection reforms, reliability backstop procurement and demand-management measures as ongoing responses.
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